by Paul Slaybaugh | May 23, 2009 | Home Selling, Scottsdale Real Estate
Real Estate agents are largely responsible for the massive housing inventories of the past two years.
That bears repeating.
Real Estate agents are largely responsible for the massive housing inventories of the past two years.
This is a conclusion that does not please me to reach, but my conclusion nonetheless after continuing to see overpriced home after overpriced home hit the market. You can blame banks or non-paying homeowners for the glut of foreclosure inventory, but guess what? Bank owned homes sell. By and large, they are priced appropriately and adjusted regularly until they sell. Compare this to the unrealistic seller/listing agent tandem with the home down the street that enters the marketplace grossly overpriced, and just sits there while the days on the market pile up without mercy.
You can blame the banks again for the short sale listings that take forever to work their way off the market because of all the bureaucracy and idiocy involved. In many instances, I would agree with you, but I find ample fault with the listing agents who do not take the time to learn the process and requirements involved for the institution(s) that hold the lien(s) against the property. Even though many banks seemingly select the files they will actually review via a no holds barred game of inebriated backgammon on the first of every month, too many agents simply throw a short sale listing on the market at a completely unrealistic price (compared to what the bank will be willing to accept) and hope that they can make it stick. Buyers get frustrated with the process after several months of inaction and often exit the transaction before getting a response from the bank. Even if the home eventually sells prior to the looming trustee’s sale, it has contributed to the bloated inventory level for months instead of weeks. Some banks will not negotiate with a seller at all until an offer is in hand, but that doesn’t mean that the agent can’t have all of the documentation lined up in advance. Many short sale listing agents that I have encountered have been a bit lacking in the communication department as well. Buyers are more likely to hang around and wait for a response if they are receiving regular feedback and updates from the seller’s side of the table as to the progress with the bank. A phone call or an email update every week or two would go a long way to keeping some of these deals together and clearing out these negative equity weeds that are choking out the resale lawn.
Inventory levels have dropped considerably in the last couple of months, but we have a long way to go before we reach a nice healthy balance of buyers and sellers. While everyone is currently focused on stimulating demand, we professionals bear a large portion of the responsibility for the supply. Every time an agent in our ranks takes a listing for 100k over the property’s current value, or even 10k for that matter, he/she is contributing to the stasis that has plagued our Valley since the equity and credit bubbles burst in 2007.
We all want your business, and are generally eager to please. As such, it can be a temptation to tell a prospective client what they want to hear when it comes to the value of their house. Less charitably, it can also be a temptation to “buy the listing” by quoting an unrealistic price to sway a seller to list the home with us versus the agent quoting a considerably lower asking price. A good agent will ensure you command a top of market price for your home, but not a one of us has a secret stash of magic beans that will grow the value of your digs above and beyond what a buyer will be willing to pay. We can advise you as to how to make your home more market ready, and how to improve its value, but we can’t fit a $750,000 peg into a $500,000 hole.
Ray and I vow to give it to you straight. It does neither party, nor the market, any favors to cram yet another overpriced listing into the protesting pair of lycra pants that is the MLS. Nope, no more glazed doughnuts on our watch. It’s time for an industry-wide low glycemic carb / high saleability diet.
As I tell my clients when we sit down to review the data, I would rather tick you off with my evaluation up front than 6 months down the line when your home hasn’t sold. Better to lose business truthfully than be complicit in the further swelling of our hemorrhaging housing market.
A home should be priced accurately, or it should not be priced at all.
We don’t list homes to practice. We list them to sell.
by Paul Slaybaugh | May 5, 2009 | Home Buying, Scottsdale Real Estate
The latest sales numbers are in, and the news is encouraging. Closed sales and pending sales are up rather dramatically and the listing inventory is sub 40,000 (37,000 and change at last glance) for the first time in recent memory. The underpinnings of the Valley Real Estate market have been statistically improving steadily with each passing month.
Is the bloom returning to the rose?
All signs seem pointed towards a market poised for recovery. Said recovery may, in hindsight, prove to already be well under way. Of course, bringing supply back in line with demand is the most tangible proof we have of a recovering market, but it doesn’t answer the question we Realtors can’t escape. We hear it in the line at Starbucks and when cornered by someone three martinis deep at cocktail parties:
“When are prices going to bottom out?”
That, my friends, is the 2 trillion dollar question. Let me preface my forthcoming opinion with the following. Anyone who tells you definitively where this elusive “bottom” is probably derived their opinion by studying flow charts, statistics, MADD Magazine and cutting the head off of a live chicken under the cover of midnight prior to the winter solstice.
My voodoo is no better than their voodoo.
That said, when I consult the astrological charts and the Arizona Regional MLS data, I am left with two distinct impressions. First, it is self evident that the house of Apollo will be foreclosed upon prior to the arrival of the harvest moon. Secondly, that the cocktail question cannot be properly answered in its current construct.
Here’s the way I see it. A segment of the market has already bottomed out. Not just any segment, mind you, but the primary driver of the past year’s Real Estate activity across the greater Phoenix and Scottsdale area. Of course, bank owned property is to what I am referring. With a disproportionate number of actual consummated transactions involving foreclosure properties at present, it is my humble opinion that the banks have already crashed their values through the floor. Attracting multiple offers and bidding situations in many instances, they would be hard pressed to erode pricing further now that demand is lined up around the corner in the form of cash laden investors.
The next part of the equation, though, might be difficult to swallow for Valley homeowners (A + B = oh Crap!). With foreclosure properties really driving pricing, few traditional sellers have been able to compete. Foreclosures have sold at record clips while resales have lagged behind their typical share of the market. As such, a gulf has opened up between the bank properties which are selling and the non-bank owned homes that are collecting dust at non-competitive prices. For the market at large to officially “bottom out” in my opinion, resale prices still need to fall further to decrease the gap. Buyers need a reason to start buying resale homes again, and that reason is all wrapped up in pricing. Most folks would prefer to buy a well maintained home from a mom and pop seller than an abandoned bank owned property, but not if it is priced a couple hundred thousand dollars higher.
Synopsis: I think the lowest prices that the Valley will see are presently or very nearly at hand because there is a great deal of demand for these homes. There will be good values still to come as resale prices drift further down, but don’t expect the bank owned bargains you are seeing today to get substantially better in the coming weeks and months.
As the title suggests, I think the summer will tell the tale of our market’s health. The spring is always our most active season, so I want to see how the market reacts when the seasonal buyers leave town. Will we retain the momentum from a brisk spring or will we recede back into the doldrums as the mercury rises? I predict the former, but again, that’s just my voodoo.
It wouldn’t be a Real Estate post without a call to action, so I’ll leave you with this. Wherever prices are next year, interest rates are highly unlikely to be in the 4’s like they are presently. If you’re asking me, and even if you’re not, I think it’s time to buy. Last call for bargain shoppers is looming.
Now, about this chicken …
by Paul Slaybaugh | May 2, 2009 | Home Selling, Scottsdale Real Estate
One of the age old adages of Real Estate is that everything is negotiable. By and large, it is true. However, another adage to bear in mind is that there is a time and a place for everything. Let’s examine the sticky issue of seller repairs during the course of a typical transaction, for example.
Buyer’s aren’t the only ones who can experience a healthy degree of remorse after consummating an agreement to purchase a home. The phenomenon also extends to sellers who are convinced that they have undersold their property. Hard to fathom that anyone who watches the news these days and has an idea of what is going on in the current market would think it is possible to undersell right now, but it happens. While a remorseful buyer may look to the home inspection as an escape hatch to get out of a purchase they no longer wish to make, a remorseful seller may decide to stonewall all buyer inspection requests because “they are already stealing the house.”
There is also the case of a seller who has received a subsequently higher offer. Legally bound to the terms of the contract with the first buyer, the higher offer can only be placed in backup status. As such, some sellers with a better backup offer in hand will be inclined to stonewall the inspection demands of buyer number one in hopes of chasing him/her away. This would enable the more favorable terms of the second contract to be moved to the forefront.
Well, in each case, there is a problem with the strategy. A seller cannot retroactively change a purchase agreement to an “as is” transaction. The time to address such terms is during the initial contract negotiation. Unless overridden with constructive language, the boiler plate of the AAR (Arizona Association of Realtors) purchase contract warrants that certain systems of the home are in working order upon the close of escrow (receipted proof of any/all corrective work is required to be furnished to the buyer 3 days prior to closing).
Section 5a of the AAR Purchase Contract:
Seller Warranties: Seller warrants and shall maintain and repair the Premises so that, at the earlier of possession or COE: (i) all heating, cooling, mechanical, plumbing and electrical systems (including swimming pool and/or spa, motors, filter systems, cleaning systems, and heaters, if any), freestanding range/oven, and built-in appliances will be in working condition; …
In other words, the seller is contractually obligated to make any repairs necessary to ensure that the systems referenced in the passage above are in fully functional condition at closing (or possession, whichever comes first). I am not an attorney, but according to the suits in our downtown corporate office, “functional” is to mean “as intended upon original installation.” In other words, your A/C may work, but if it has a temperature split outside of the ideal range, you are most likely technically obligated to repair the component that is preventing it from functioning in accordance with original specifications. Faulty wiring (double taps in the breaker box, reversed polarity, etc), non-functioning fixed appliances, leaky shower valves … you are on the hook for those repairs.
Let me reiterate, I am not an attorney, so please do not refer to anything stated in this post for legal guidance. I am but a simple Realtor with a simple message:
Unless you struck the seller warranty language out of your original purchase agreement (good luck with that in this market unless you happen to be an asset manager for a bank and willing to discount the price of the home dramatically), there are certain repairs you are stuck with, lest you be in breach of the purchase contract.
That’s where fun new topics such as specific performance lawsuits come into play.
Read the contract to which you are agreeing, and don’t let your agent dismiss the fine print as “just boilerplate.” That boilerplate contains specific rights and responsibilities of which you need to be aware prior to ratification. The Devil is always in the details.
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by Paul Slaybaugh | May 1, 2009 | Home Selling, Scottsdale Real Estate
Shh! Can you hear that?
It’s the sound of hollow vault doors being slammed shut and masking tape being drawn to piece together shattered family piggy banks. Smashing the pink porcelain piglet in cases of emergency is the easy part. It’s putting the starved omnivorous swine back together that requires the patience of Job.
While America has gone for her hammer, we Realtors have been peddling a seemingly contrary message.
Buy. Now.
While it is difficult to fathom spending money at a time when most are diving under the sofa cushions to retrieve every last nickel and Chuck E Cheese coin alike, we are all familiar with the free market tenet that the best time to buy is when everybody else is selling. Or trying to sell, I should say. The worst of times allow for the best of swindles purchases. The majority of the general public recognizes this, laments the scarcity of available funds to capitalize on the current opportunities, and grudgingly returns to the painstaking task of trying to figure out which of the three credit cards to make a payment on this month.
These prices are crazy! If I had any extra money laying around, I’d buy five!
Of course, it goes without saying that values are so low because of the very truth that so few are in a position to buy. As soon as demand catches back up with supply, and more folks are in better places financially, the opportunity for the best values will be gone. This isn’t a sales pitch. This isn’t even a sales post. It’s just the way it is.
Nope, rather I am simply writing to remind you that the same market forces that apply to the current housing market at large apply to your home specifically, even if you are not looking to buy or sell. I am talking about now being an excellent time to renovate.
Blasphemy, I know.
With prices consistently falling for the past year and a half, why on God’s green earth would you invest more money into a depreciating asset? Especially when money is not exactly growing on HELOC trees these days?
Because there are a lot of hemorrhaging material suppliers and minimally employed contractors out there, that’s why. If you haven’t shopped the box stores or general construction supply retailers lately, you might be surprised at some of the prices that can currently buy you a slab of granite or travertine tile.
With starts for new build homes down to a virtual standstill, there is excess material and labor strewn all across the Valley. Don’t believe me? Go post a construction job on Craigslist and don’t blame me when your inbox explodes. Just like winter is the best time to resurface a pool, a slow growth market is ripe for a home renovation bargain.
Whether you are an investor that has adopted a buy and hold strategy for a slow motion flip, a homeowner who plans to sell in several years when the market is more conducive to your goals, or just someone who is simply sick of mauve carpet and laminate cabinets, this just might be the time to take the plunge.
It will be more difficult to finance the rehab, with lines of credit evaporating and home equities diminishing, but again, that’s the rub. That is precisely why there are bargains to be had.
While counting all of the money you are saving as you pick out those cabinets, thanks to the uncanny insight of a certain friendly Scottsdale Real Estate magnate, please bear one thing in mind as a thank you gift:
The magnate likes cherrywood.
by Paul Slaybaugh | May 1, 2009 | Home Selling, Scottsdale Real Estate
Appraisals are typically regarded as the most accurate measure of a home’s value, and for good reason. Licensed to perform one task and one task only, appraisers see and evaluate property all day, every day. While some of us more egocentric Realtors feel that we put more time and effort into our own opinions of value, considering we will ultimately bear the responsibility of bringing the home to market and selling it, that bit of vanity is neither here nor there. Appraisers, though many underwriters these days are loathe to admit it, are still considered the ultimate authority on worth outside of a willing buyer and seller.
Appraisers, however, are often hamstrung by their own guidelines in keeping pace with the current market. This can be beneficial, such as when prices were artificially exploding between 2005-2006. We agents lamented the stodgy appraisers who were too rooted in the past (closed sales) to acknowledge the present (upward trending prices) while values were exploding. You couldn’t attend an office meeting without a colleague or six bemoaning the bozo appraiser who didn’t grasp the current market. If only our industry at large had been so conservative.
Normally the protective ally of the bank and the buyer, I have noticed an interesting shift as of late, however. Appraisers have become a seller’s best friend. Before you toss me out on my heretical ear, hear me out.
Appraisers have begun to view the market in two distinct categories. There is the general non-distressed resale home market, and then there is the foreclosure market. When evaluating a property, most seem to have taken to lumping properties into one grouping or the other. Their subsequent findings are based upon the homogeneous pairings: bank-owned properties are comped against other bank-owned properties and standard resale homes are comped against other standard resale homes.
It sounds great in theory, but the problem with this new pattern is two-fold. First, there is the matter of pure sales volume. The action in our current market is more heavily dominated by foreclosure properties than any point in memory. It’s undeniable. The mini sales boom that has seen a steady increase in total closed and pending sales in each of the last several months here in the greater Phoenix area is due in large part to the allure of these lower priced options. As such, it is just not feasible to ignore this growing segment of the market when trying to determine the value of a home. The data is often quite scarce when trawling for non-distressed sales upon which to base an evaluation. By and large, the higher priced resale homes just aren’t selling with a great enough frequency to provide adequate comparison data.
The other issue is the problematic assumption that a buyer cares. If the home next to your own has been foreclosed upon and is listed at $200,000 less, do you honestly think the buyer will buy yours if all other things are equal? Is a buyer really expected to see anything beyond the price and the condition? The label of “bank-owned” versus “resale” is wholly irrelevant to what a buyer is willing to pay. Shoot, I have seen quite a few remodeled bank-owned or short sale properties that put many dog-eared resale listings to shame. And yet, they are somehow devalued or eliminated from the consideration of value for other homes in the neighborhood simply because of the conjured stigma. Buyers may start their search with one particular market segment in mind (distressed property shoppers looking for a deal, resale shoppers looking for a well maintained home), but they will ultimately look at everything that fits their price and need requirements. Labels be damned.
I sure like it when my appraisal tells me my home is worth more by ignoring completely the last four neighborhood comps, but I know the real score. No buyer will pay me what my current appraisal tells me it’s worth. No way. I know better than to be the ostrich who thinks that the homes that are actually selling right now have no impact on my property value because they are “distressed.” Guess what, buckaroo, those sales are distressing the entire market. There may be microcosms within the market at large, but they are amoebic. The uneven boundaries protruding against each other as they occupy overlapping space.
So while there is still plenty of benefit in having your home evaluated by a neutral authority, just remember not to spend all of that anticipated equity before your buyer signs on the dotted line. You just might be unpleasantly surprised when he doesn’t downgrade the competition or recent sales comps like your appraiser did.
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